Who financed the AI buildout
event window since 2026-10-07
On 2026-10-08 the FT reported OpenAI's annualized revenue near $50B, about $20B below the figures in circulation (mostly gross-vs-net accounting); ORCL fell 5.5% and CRWV about 8%. On 2026-10-12 Microsoft unveiled its Maia 300 inference chip (2027 deployment), cutting future demand for rented GPU capacity; on 2026-10-14 CRWV fell about 15% and NBIS about 10% intraday. The second order is the landlords and lenders whose contracts depend on the neoclouds and their two biggest customers.
| Ticker | Role | Side | Exposure | Return | vs SPY | z | Priced in | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORCL | first order | short | 0.50 | -7.7% | -6.7% | -0.9 | 39% | cloud backlog concentrated in OpenAI |
| OWL | second order | short | 0.20 | -3.6% | -2.6% | -0.4 | 38% | co-financed the Stargate Abilene campus |
| APLD | second order | short | 0.50 | -14.8% | -13.8% | -1.1 | 80% | its data-center campuses are leased to CoreWeave, a large share of contracted revenue |
| CRWV | first order | short | 0.70 | -26.3% | -25.3% | -1.9 | 100% | neocloud; Microsoft and OpenAI are its biggest customers |
| NBIS | first order | short | 0.60 | -21.7% | -20.7% | -1.2 | 100% | neocloud with a ~$17B Microsoft contract |
| IREN | second order | short | 0.35 | -19.8% | -18.8% | -1.3 | 100% | ~$9.7B Microsoft GPU-cloud contract; Maia cuts renewal odds |
| GLXY | second order | short | 0.30 | -14.8% | -13.8% | -1.1 | 100% | Helios campus leased to CoreWeave (crypto business dilutes it) |
| SMCI | second order | short | 0.20 | -18.4% | -17.4% | -1.5 | 100% | fewer GPU server builds if hyperscalers use own chips |
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