The Daily Radar, Oct 15, 2026

The AI-disruption trades the market hasn't connected yet.

1. The unpriced list

Names exposed to a live AI-disruption theme that have not moved like it yet:

$TENB (AI labs move into cybersecurity, short): exposure 0.60, moved +4.3% vs SPY since Sep 30, ~0% priced in. vulnerability scanning is exactly what Argon-style agents automate
$TRIP (Personal AI agents vs. consumer inertia and ad-funded discovery, short): exposure 0.55, moved -1.1% vs SPY since Sep 4, ~5% priced in. review/meta-search clicks bypassed by agents
$QLYS (AI labs move into cybersecurity, short): exposure 0.50, moved +0.1% vs SPY since Sep 30, ~0% priced in. vulnerability management
$RPD (AI labs move into cybersecurity, short): exposure 0.50, moved +2.2% vs SPY since Sep 30, ~0% priced in. vulnerability management and detection
$CHTR (Starlink Mobile vs. terrestrial wireless, short): exposure 0.45, moved +0.7% vs SPY since Oct 8, ~0% priced in. Spectrum Mobile MVNO growth engine + rural broadband overlap with Starlink

2. New threat statements in filings

Nothing new flagged today.

3. Model portfolio (paper)

New call: $TENB short (AI labs vs. cybersecurity). +5.6% vs SPY since Oct 1, ~0% priced in.
New call: $RPD short (AI labs vs. cybersecurity). +2.3% vs SPY since Oct 1, ~0% priced in.
New call: $QLYS short (AI labs vs. cybersecurity). -0.9% vs SPY since Oct 1, ~6% priced in.
New call: $CHTR short (Starlink Mobile). -0.0% vs SPY since Oct 8, ~0% priced in.
New call: $HRB short (AI shopping agents). -2.8% vs SPY since Sep 8, ~17% priced in.
Filled: spread $VZ at $0.22 (options book).
Filled: spread $MTCH at $0.20 (options book).
Filled: spread $TRIP at $0.49 (options book).
Closed KXEARNINGSMENTIONBAC-26OCT14-WORL at 0.0 (settled no, P&L $-14.71).
Closed KXEARNINGSMENTIONBAC-26OCT14-TARI at 0.0 (settled no, P&L $-14.86).
Closed KXEARNINGSMENTIONBAC-26OCT14-RECE at 0.0 (settled no, P&L $-15.00).
Closed KXEARNINGSMENTIONBAC-26OCT14-RATE at 1.0 (settled no, P&L $+3.76).
Closed KXEARNINGSMENTIONBAC-26OCT14-PIPE at 0.0 (settled yes, P&L $-14.85).
Closed KXEARNINGSMENTIONBAC-26OCT14-MERR at 0.0 (settled yes, P&L $-14.99).
Closed KXEARNINGSMENTIONBAC-26OCT14-IRAN at 1.0 (settled no, P&L $+9.43).
Closed KXEARNINGSMENTIONBAC-26OCT14-INFL at 0.0 (settled yes, P&L $-14.76).
Closed KXEARNINGSMENTIONBAC-26OCT14-HIKE at 0.0 (settled yes, P&L $-15.00).
Closed KXEARNINGSMENTIONBAC-26OCT14-DELI at 0.0 (settled yes, P&L $-14.99).
Closed KXEARNINGSMENTIONBAC-26OCT14-BUYB at 0.0 (settled yes, P&L $-14.40).
Closed KXEARNINGSMENTIONBAC-26OCT14-AI at 0.0 (settled yes, P&L $-14.94).
Closed KXEARNINGSMENTIONBAC-26OCT14-AGEN at 0.0 (settled yes, P&L $-14.80).
Closed KXEARNINGSMENTIONMS-26OCT14-ZERO at 0.0 (settled no, P&L $-14.74).
Closed KXEARNINGSMENTIONMS-26OCT14-TOKE at 1.0 (settled yes, P&L $+39.23).
Closed KXEARNINGSMENTIONMS-26OCT14-TAIL at 1.0 (settled yes, P&L $+7.34).
Closed KXEARNINGSMENTIONMS-26OCT14-PRIVC at 0.0 (settled no, P&L $-14.68).
Closed KXEARNINGSMENTIONMS-26OCT14-PRIV at 0.0 (settled yes, P&L $-14.22).
Closed KXEARNINGSMENTIONMS-26OCT14-MIDD at 0.0 (settled yes, P&L $-14.50).
Closed KXEARNINGSMENTIONMS-26OCT14-INVE at 0.0 (settled yes, P&L $-14.85).
Closed KXEARNINGSMENTIONMS-26OCT14-BUYB at 0.0 (settled no, P&L $-14.69).
Closed KXEARNINGSMENTIONMS-26OCT14-BASE at 1.0 (settled no, P&L $+8.58).
Filled: short $TENB at $38.08 (shadow (stock) book).
Filled: short $RPD at $12.37 (shadow (stock) book).
Closed $MTCH at 0.0 (stop loss, P&L $-40.80).
Paper books: options $955.55 (2 open) / Kalshi $315.51 (2 open) / shadow (stock) $999.86 (6 open).

4. Earnings-call mention odds (Kalshi)

$ALLY 'Credit Card' (Oct 20): model 0.97 vs ask 0.4 - said on 4/5 recent calls
$ALLY 'Buyback / Buy Back' (Oct 20): model 0.74 vs ask 0.48 - said on 2/5 recent calls
$ALLY 'Tariff' (Oct 20): model 0.80 vs ask 0.56 - said on 3/5 recent calls
$ALLY 'Rate Cut / Cut Rate' (Oct 20): model 0.53 vs ask 0.29 - said on 3/5 recent calls
$GM 'F1' (Oct 20): model 0.42 vs ask 0.19 - said on 1/4 recent calls

5. New AI releases on the radar

OpenAI Launches AI Services Outsourcing Company 05/12/2026 (MediaPost). Obvious: $ACN, $CTSH, $EPAM. Second-order: $G, $EXLS, $GLOB.
Meta unveils frontier-class AI models in bid to catch OpenAI and Anthropic (mezha.net). Obvious: $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN. Second-order: $CRM, $ADBE, $DDOG.
Google Finally Releases Gemini 4 Argon To Take On OpenAI And Anthropic: Features, Price And More (Times Now). Obvious: $MSFT, $AMZN. Second-order: $CRM, $ADBE, $CHGG, $FVRR.

6. Watchlist scoreboard (no signals)

$SNDK (AI bottlenecks and crowded hedges): +435.8% vs SPY since the start of the year
$MU (AI bottlenecks and crowded hedges): +194.3% vs SPY since the start of the year
$BE (AI bottlenecks and crowded hedges): +139.6% vs SPY since the start of the year
$STX (AI bottlenecks and crowded hedges): +127.8% vs SPY since the start of the year
$LITE (AI bottlenecks and crowded hedges): +106.8% vs SPY since the start of the year

Research and education only - not investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security or event contract. Model portfolios are paper (simulated) unless explicitly labelled live, and past or simulated results do not guarantee future results. We disclose our own positions and never trade ahead of what we publish.